Professor: Dr.
Telephones: Work (703) 907-2547
Home: (301) 540-0363 (
E-mail: [email protected]
Office Hours: Thursdays
SYST 683 - MODELS, GAMING,
AND SIMULATION
Course Syllabus
COURSE OVERVIEW: This course will focus on the use and
characteristics of combat simulations as aids to decision-making.� Principles of good analysis using combat
models will provide the overall theme of the course.� It will include discussion of techniques to
model attrition, acquisition, movement, battlefield environment, command and
control, communications, intelligence, air-to-air combat, and
decision-making.� The future of combat
simulations will be discussed, including Advanced Distributed Simulation
(Distributed Interactive Simulation and High-Level Architecture).
�
COURSE GOAL: The overall goal of the course is to
prepare students to be good �consumers� of military simulation products, for
example, as military decision-makers, advisors to decision-makers, or as
critical observers of the acquisition, research, or operational planning
processes within the
COURSE OBJECTIVES:
����������� 1. Students
will be familiar with the definitions and taxonomies of� models, simulations, and wargames.
����������� 2.
Students will understand the purposes of combat models as aids to
decision-making, including principles of proper use, formulation of measures of
effectiveness, analysis of results, and common pitfalls and abuses in the construction
and application of combat models.
����������� 3.
Students will understand strategies for representing combat such as stochastic
versus deterministic modeling, event-based versus time-stepped simulation,
aggregation, distributed versus standalone simulation, and closed versus
human-in-the-loop simulation.
����������� 4.
Students will understand techniques for representing acquisition, attrition,
movement, battlefield environment, command and control, communications,
intelligence, air-to-air combat, and decision-making.
����������� 5.
Students will be familiar with the functions of major components of
air-land combat simulations, using as examples algorithms employed by Eagle, a
US Army corps-level combat simulation, and THUNDER, a USAF theater-level air
combat simulation. These components will include command and control, direct
fire, indirect fire, acquisition, sensors and intelligence fusion, terrain,
mobility/countermobility, air and air defense, logistics support, and possibly
others based on student interest.
����������� 6.
Students will demonstrate an understanding of the use of combat models by
conducting an analysis of the impact on force effectiveness of a modernized
(notional) tank.
����������� 7.
Students will be familiar with the concept of Advanced Distributed Simulation,
including Distributed Interactive Simulation and High-Level Architecture.
����������� 8.
Students will be familiar with composable, object-oriented, parallel, and
distributed approaches in combat simulations.
SCHEDULE:
Day 1 (Session 1):� Introduction;
purposes of combat models; the scientific basis of combat models; definitions,
taxonomies, and examples; aggregation; stochastic versus deterministic
modeling; discrete-event simulation, event-based versus time-stepped control;
closed versus man-in-the-loop simulation.�
Example: overview of Eagle corps-level combat simulation.
Day 2 (Session 2): Principles of good analysis using
combat models; common pitfalls and abuses in practice; measures of
effectiveness; example analytical studies using combat models; simulation
control concepts. Introduce project.�
Review statistical techniques for hypothesis testing*. (Project Part I
assigned.)
Day 3 (Session 3): Attrition algorithms for
High-Resolution models:� Physical models
of attrition.
Day 4 (Session 4): Attrition algorithms for Aggregated
models:� Lanchester attrition model.
Day 5 (Session 5): Attrition algorithms for Aggregated
models:� Stochastic models of Lanchester
attrition; Attrition as a Markov chain; attrition coefficient generation.
Day 6 (Session 6): Attrition algorithms for Aggregated
models:� Non-Lanchester attrition
algorithms; Fire-power scores/correlation-of-forces method;
potential/anti-potential method; ATCAL method.
Day 7 Midterm Exam.
Day 8: (Session 7): Target detection algorithms: glimpse,
continuous-observation, DYNTACS, and ACQUIRE models; Line-of-sight models
(explicit and implicit). Review for Midterm. (Project Part I due at start of
class.)
Day 9 (Session 8): Battlefield environment
representations: Terrain mobility models (hex, sector, patch, homogeneous,
network); Mobility algorithms: route planning and movement.� Weather-and-obscuration models. Combat
Engineers, Countermobility - barriers and other terrain features. Review
Midterm Exam.
Day 10 (Session 9 & 10): Command-and-control: definition;
decision tables versus rule-based reasoning; a comprehensive C2 example.
Modeling intelligence fusion. Communications. Modeling Other Battlefield
Functions: Force representation, Fire Support,�
Air Defense, Air Combat models, Logistics. (Project Part II assigned).
Day 11 (Session 11): The future of combat models:
Object-oriented design, parallelism, and distributed combat simulations.
Distributed Interactive Simulation and High-Level Architecture. Current issues
in military simulation. Student Presentations
Day 12 (Session 12): High-Level Architecture overview.
Student Presentations
Day 13 (Session 13): High-Level Architecture case studies.
Student Presentations
Day 14: Review. Student Presentations (Project
Part II due at start of class.)
Day 15: Final Exam.
*For use in Project Part I
PROJECT:��
����������� Concept:
�Each student will use combat models to analyze
a notional modernized tank to determine its impact on force effectiveness.�
����������� Given:
�
����������������������� 1. A high-resolution
tank-on-tank combat simulation.� This
model will be provided by the instructor. It is written in Pascal, and will run
on an IBM-compatible PC.
����������������������� 2. Attrition and
acquisition data to describe the modernized tank and the tank it would replace,
and data for a set of other friendly and threat weapon systems.
����������������������� 3. A simple Lanchester-based
low-resolution model.� This model will be
implemented by each student in a spreadsheet or other format as desired.
����������������������� 4. Statistical tools as
available in Excel or other spreadsheets.
����������� Requirement:� Students will develop attrition rates for
Blue (friendly) and Red (threat) weapons using a high-resolution simulation and
statistical techniques (Part I).� They
will then build a Lanchester-based spreadsheet model of aggregated combat and
use the attrition rates developed in Part I to assess the overall contribution
of the modernized tank to force effectiveness (Part II).
Optional Alternative to Part II: Student will present a topic based on
his/her own experience or research relevant to Military Modeling and
Simulation, but not covered in the course.
�����������
GRADING:
����������� Project: 40% (Part I: 20%;� Part II: 20%)
����������� Midterm Exam: 20%
����������� Final: 40%
TEXT:
(1)
High
Resolution Combat Models and Aggregated
Combat Models, Hartman, Parry, and
RECOMMENDED SUPPLEMENTAL
(1)
Warfare
Modeling, Ed. Bracken,
Kress, and Rosenthal, Military Operations Research Society, John Wiley &
Sons, 1995.
(2)
Simulation
Modeling and Analysis, Averill
M. Law and W. David Kelton, 2nd Edition, McGraw-Hill, 1991.
(3) Virtual Combat, David L. Neyland, Stackpole Books,
1997.
(4) �Introduction to Military Training
Simulation: A Guide for Discrete Event Simulationists,� Ernest H. Page and Roger Smith,
Proceedings
of the 1998 Winter Simulation Conference. (http://www.wintersim.org/prog98.htm)